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Cartagena II vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena II
Cartagena II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
David Santisteban 69'
Perico 90+5'
12/6/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II46%
×Draw27%
La Unión Atlético27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena II
1.37
La Unión Atlético
0.98

Cartagena II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cartagena II
1.63
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Cartagena II
0.85
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw
73%
Cartagena II or La Unión Atlético
73%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
54%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+
22%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals
75%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
40%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
16%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
62%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
26%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)
63%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cartagena II scores more
46%
level
27%
La Unión Atlético scores more
27%

Cartagena II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
Adri Gómez← Gerardo
60'
Neskes← Kevin Laosa
60'
I. Pais← Lalo Hernández
61'
Renato← Iván Santisteban
61'
Perico← Ketchup
69'
Miguel← Chema
69'
David Santisteban
70'
Mateo Fromsa← Deiby Ochoa
70'
Mohammed← Revilla
85'
Harri← Schuster
90+5'
Perico
Cartagena
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Iván Santisteban
▼
Santisteb
Julio Algar
Algar
Cristian Muñoz
Muñoz
Juan Acosta
Acosta
Schuster
▼
Schuster
Ketchup
▼
Ketchup
Alberto
Alberto
Paco Collados
Collados
Chema
▼
Chema
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Sergio Díaz
Díaz
José Mari
Mari
Deiby Ochoa
▼
Ochoa
Lalo Hernández
▼
Hernández
Antonio Sánchez
Sánchez
Edu Martínez
Martínez
Gerardo
▼
Gerardo
Revilla
▼
Revilla
Kevin Laosa
▼
Laosa
E. Sutherland
Sutherlan
David Santisteban
⚽
Santisteb
Aguilar
Manager: Aguilar
60'▲Adri Gómez←▼Gerardo
60'▲Neskes←▼Kevin Laosa
60'▲I. Pais←▼Lalo Hernández
70'▲Mateo Fromsa←▼Deiby Ochoa
70'▲Mohammed←▼Revilla

Cartagena II substitutes

GómezNeskesPaisFromsaMohammed
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
61'▲Renato←▼Iván Santisteban
61'▲Perico←▼Ketchup
69'▲Miguel←▼Chema
85'▲Harri←▼Schuster

La Unión Atlético substitutes

RenatoPericoMiguelHarri

Match Recap: Cartagena II vs La Unión Atlético

Cartagena II and La Unión Atlético drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 6, 2020.

Goals: David Santisteban (69'), Perico (90+5').

The match was played at Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.