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Cartagena II vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena II
Cartagena II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II51%
×Draw25%
Cartagena FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena II
1.57
Cartagena FC
0.97

Cartagena II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 44 away

creates per match

Cartagena II
1.63
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Cartagena II
0.85
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw
77%
Cartagena II or Cartagena FC
75%
Draw or Cartagena FC
49%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+
27%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals
79%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
46%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
21%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
62%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
25%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)
69%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cartagena II scores more
51%
level
25%
Cartagena FC scores more
23%

Cartagena II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena II 2 – 0 Cartagena FC

Cartagena II beat Cartagena FC 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.