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Cartagena FC vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
CANC
00:00
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC30%
×Draw26%
UCAM Murcia II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.16
UCAM Murcia II
1.44

UCAM Murcia II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
57%
Cartagena FC or UCAM Murcia II
74%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
70%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
12%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
69%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
32%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
11%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
76%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
42%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
41%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
30%
level
26%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
43%

UCAM Murcia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena FC face UCAM Murcia II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 returns with Cartagena FC hosting UCAM Murcia II. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cartagena FC host UCAM Murcia II at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.