Cartagena FC 3–3 SFC Minerva: Result & Stats

Cartagena FC

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

SFC Minerva

11/10/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC40%

×Draw26%

SFC Minerva34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena FCExpected goals in this matchSFC Minerva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Cartagena FC

1.42

SFC Minerva

1.29

Cartagena FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 63 away

1.18

creates per match

1.03

1.55

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Cartagena FC

1.18

SFC Minerva

1.03

allows per match

Cartagena FC

1.55

SFC Minerva

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par

SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

SFC Minerva →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw

66%

Cartagena FC or SFC Minerva

74%

Draw or SFC Minerva

60%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+

19%

SFC Minerva wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals

76%

Cartagena FC 2+ goals

41%

Cartagena FC 3+ goals

17%

SFC Minerva 1+ goals

72%

SFC Minerva 2+ goals

37%

SFC Minerva 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)

54%

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cartagena FC scores more

40%

level

26%

SFC Minerva scores more

34%

Cartagena FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cartagena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena FC vs SFC Minerva

Cartagena FC and SFC Minerva drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.

Cartagena FC vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cartagena FC vs SFC Minerva