Cartagena FC 2–0 Real Murcia II: Result & Stats

Cartagena FC

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Murcia II

11/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC31%

×Draw26%

Real Murcia II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena FCExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.40

Cartagena FC

1.17

Real Murcia II

1.40

Real Murcia II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 111 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

1.55

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Cartagena FC

1.18

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

Cartagena FC

1.55

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw

58%

Cartagena FC or Real Murcia II

74%

Draw or Real Murcia II

69%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+

13%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals

69%

Cartagena FC 2+ goals

33%

Cartagena FC 3+ goals

11%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

75%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

41%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)

43%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cartagena FC scores more

31%

level

26%

Real Murcia II scores more

42%

Real Murcia II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena FC vs Real Murcia II

Cartagena FC beat Real Murcia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.

Cartagena FC vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cartagena FC vs Real Murcia II