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Cartagena FC vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC31%
×Draw27%
Racing Murcia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.12
Racing Murcia
1.34

Racing Murcia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 62 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
Racing Murcia
1.13

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
Racing Murcia
1.06

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

Racing Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
58%
Cartagena FC or Racing Murcia
73%
Draw or Racing Murcia
69%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
12%
Racing Murcia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
67%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
31%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
10%
Racing Murcia 1+ goals
74%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
39%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
43%
Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
31%
level
27%
Racing Murcia scores more
42%

Racing Murcia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena FC vs Racing Murcia

Racing Murcia beat Cartagena FC 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.