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Cartagena FC vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
10/26/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC36%
×Draw27%
Olímpico Totana37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.23
Olímpico Totana
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 50 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
63%
Cartagena FC or Olímpico Totana
73%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
64%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
15%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
71%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
35%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
13%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
72%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
36%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
49%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Olímpico Totana scores more
37%

Olímpico Totana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena FC 0 – 1 Olímpico Totana

Olímpico Totana beat Cartagena FC 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.