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Cartagena FC vs Mar Menor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mar Menor
Mar Menor
12/6/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cartagena FC22%
×Draw27%
Mar Menor50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
0.84
Mar Menor
1.41

Mar Menor creates 68% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 26 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
Mar Menor
1.27

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
Mar Menor
0.50

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

Mar Menor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
50%
Cartagena FC or Mar Menor
73%
Draw or Mar Menor
78%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
7%
Mar Menor wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
57%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
21%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
5%
Mar Menor 1+ goals
76%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
41%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
31%
Mar Menor (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.84

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
22%
level
27%
Mar Menor scores more
50%

Mar Menor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cartagena FC 0–0 Mar Menor

Cartagena FC and Mar Menor drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.