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Cartagena FC vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
CANC
00:00
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC27%
×Draw25%
Lorca Deportiva47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.12
Lorca Deportiva
1.56

Lorca Deportiva creates 39% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 80 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
53%
Cartagena FC or Lorca Deportiva
75%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
73%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
11%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
67%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
31%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
10%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
79%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
46%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
37%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
27%
level
25%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
47%

Lorca Deportiva at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena FC vs Lorca Deportiva — Match Preview

Cartagena FC face Lorca Deportiva on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cartagena FC host Lorca Deportiva at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.