Cartagena FC 1–3 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Cartagena FC

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Toni Vela 66'

Pablo Guillen 72'

David Valverde 63'

Javi Muñoz 17'

1/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC39%

×Draw27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena FCExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.20

Cartagena FC

1.31

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

1.18

creates per match

0.85

1.55

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Cartagena FC

1.18

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Cartagena FC

1.55

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw

66%

Cartagena FC or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

73%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

61%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+

18%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals

73%

Cartagena FC 2+ goals

38%

Cartagena FC 3+ goals

14%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

70%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

34%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)

54%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cartagena FC scores more

39%

level

27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

34%

Cartagena FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cartagena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Javi Muñoz

46'

Ginés Moscoso← Gregorio

46'

Ramón Mira← José Morata

60'

63'

66'

72'

76'

Fernando Carmona← David Valverde

76'

Matías← Emilio Pérez

79'

Jorge Valero← Carmelo Sánchez

81'

Mario← Pablo Guillen

90+1'

Franco← Samuel Martínez

Cartagena

CAP

⚽

▼

Guillen

▼

Martínez

⚽

Muñoz

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Juan Tomás

46'▲Ginés Moscoso←▼Gregorio

46'▲Ramón Mira←▼José Morata

60'▲Toni Vela←▼Javi Bolo

79'▲Jorge Valero←▼Carmelo Sánchez

Cartagena FC substitutes

MoscosoMiraVelaValero

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

76'▲Fernando Carmona←▼David Valverde

76'▲Matías←▼Emilio Pérez

81'▲Mario←▼Pablo Guillen

90+1'▲Franco←▼Samuel Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

CarmonaMatíasMarioFranco

Match Recap: Cartagena FC vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Cartagena FC 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 16, 2022.

Goals: Javi Muñoz (17'), David Valverde (63'), Toni Vela (66'), Pablo Guillen (72').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.

Cartagena FC vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cartagena FC vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia