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Cartagena FC vs Águilas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Águilas
Águilas
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Cartagena FC26%
×Draw28%
Águilas46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
0.93
Águilas
1.33

Águilas creates 43% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
Águilas
1.10

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
Águilas
0.69

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

Águilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
54%
Cartagena FC or Águilas
72%
Draw or Águilas
74%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
9%
Águilas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
61%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
24%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
7%
Águilas 1+ goals
74%
Águilas 2+ goals
38%
Águilas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
36%
Águilas (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.93

Águilas attack 1.10 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
26%
level
28%
Águilas scores more
46%

Águilas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cartagena FC 2–0 Águilas

Cartagena FC beat Águilas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.