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Çarşambaspor vs Yozgatspor 1959 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Çarşambaspor
Çarşambaspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yozgatspor 1959
Yozgatspor 1959
10/13/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundYeşilırmak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Çarşambaspor26%
×Draw24%
Yozgatspor 195951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çarşambaspor
1.17
Yozgatspor 1959
1.75

Yozgatspor 1959 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Çarşambaspor
1.00
Yozgatspor 1959
0.83

allows per match

Çarşambaspor
2.67
Yozgatspor 1959
1.33

finishing

Çarşambaspor+0.00on par
Yozgatspor 1959+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çarşambaspor ↓

Yozgatspor 1959 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Çarşambaspor or draw
49%
Çarşambaspor or Yozgatspor 1959
76%
Draw or Yozgatspor 1959
74%

Winning margin

Çarşambaspor wins by 2+
10%
Yozgatspor 1959 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Çarşambaspor 1+ goals
69%
Çarşambaspor 2+ goals
33%
Çarşambaspor 3+ goals
11%
Yozgatspor 1959 1+ goals
83%
Yozgatspor 1959 2+ goals
52%
Yozgatspor 1959 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Çarşambaspor (draw refunded)
33%
Yozgatspor 1959 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çarşambaspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Yozgatspor 1959 away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çarşambaspor attack 1.00 + Yozgatspor 1959 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Yozgatspor 1959 attack 0.83 + Çarşambaspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Çarşambaspor scores more
26%
level
24%
Yozgatspor 1959 scores more
51%

Yozgatspor 1959 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Yozgatspor 1959 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Çarşambaspor vs Yozgatspor 1959

Yozgatspor 1959 beat Çarşambaspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 13, 2020.

The match was played at Yeşilırmak Stadyumu in Çarşamba.