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Carroi vs UE Sant Julia — 1a Divisió 2019

Carroi
Carroi
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
UE Sant Julia
UE Sant Julia
1/26/20221a Divisió1a Divisió · Stagione regolare - 11Camp de Futbol La Massana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Carroi27%
×Draw23%
UE Sant Julia50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carroi
1.23
UE Sant Julia
1.76

UE Sant Julia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 49 away

creates per match

Carroi
0.71
UE Sant Julia
1.29

allows per match

Carroi
2.22
UE Sant Julia
1.76

finishing

Carroi+0.00on par
UE Sant Julia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carroi ↓

UE Sant Julia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Carroi or draw
50%
Carroi or UE Sant Julia
77%
Draw or UE Sant Julia
73%

Winning margin

Carroi wins by 2+
11%
UE Sant Julia wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Carroi 1+ goals
71%
Carroi 2+ goals
35%
Carroi 3+ goals
13%
UE Sant Julia 1+ goals
83%
UE Sant Julia 2+ goals
52%
UE Sant Julia 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Carroi (draw refunded)
35%
UE Sant Julia (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carroi at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.22 · 63 matches

UE Sant Julia away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carroi attack 0.71 + UE Sant Julia defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.23

UE Sant Julia attack 1.29 + Carroi defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carroi scores more
27%
level
23%
UE Sant Julia scores more
50%

UE Sant Julia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UE Sant Julia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisió: Carroi 0–6 UE Sant Julia

UE Sant Julia beat Carroi 6-0 in 1a Divisió on January 26, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol La Massana in La Massana.