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Carroi vs La Massana — Copa Constitució 2019

Carroi
Carroi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
La Massana
La Massana
1/16/2022Copa ConstitucióCopa Constitució · 1st RoundCamp de Futbol La Massana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Carroi67%
×Draw18%
La Massana16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carroi
2.50
La Massana
1.13

Carroi creates 121% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Carroi
2.25
La Massana
1.00

allows per match

Carroi
1.25
La Massana
2.75

finishing

Carroi+0.00on par
La Massana+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carroi ↓

La Massana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Carroi or draw
84%
Carroi or La Massana
82%
Draw or La Massana
33%

Winning margin

Carroi wins by 2+
45%
La Massana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Carroi 1+ goals
92%
Carroi 2+ goals
71%
Carroi 3+ goals
45%
La Massana 1+ goals
68%
La Massana 2+ goals
31%
La Massana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carroi (draw refunded)
81%
La Massana (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carroi at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

La Massana away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carroi attack 2.25 + La Massana defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.50

La Massana attack 1.00 + Carroi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Carroi scores more
67%
level
18%
La Massana scores more
16%

Carroi at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Carroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carroi vs La Massana

Carroi beat La Massana 2-1 in Copa Constitució on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol La Massana in La Massana.