Queen's University 3–5 Carrick Rangers

Queen's University

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 4

Carrick Rangers

Unknown 83', 51', 30'

Unknown 55', 29', 21', 18', 16'

7/21/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Queen's University29%

×Draw18%

Carrick Rangers52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's UniversityExpected goals in this matchCarrick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

2.76

Queen's University

2.07

Carrick Rangers

2.76

Carrick Rangers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

3.00

creates per match

2.86

2.67

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Queen's University

3.00

Carrick Rangers

2.86

allows per match

Queen's University

2.67

Carrick Rangers

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's University+0.00on par

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's University ↓

Carrick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Queen's University or draw

48%

Queen's University or Carrick Rangers

82%

Draw or Carrick Rangers

71%

Winning margin

Queen's University wins by 2+

15%

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Queen's University 1+ goals

87%

Queen's University 2+ goals

61%

Queen's University 3+ goals

34%

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

94%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

76%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Queen's University (draw refunded)

36%

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's University at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's University attack 3.00 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Carrick Rangers attack 2.86 + Queen's University defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Queen's University scores more

29%

level

18%

Carrick Rangers scores more

52%

Carrick Rangers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

18'

21'

29'

30'

51'

55'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff