Carrick Rangers vs Newington Youth

Carrick Rangers

CANC

18:45

Newington Youth

7/30/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Carrick Rangers49%

×Draw20%

Newington Youth31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carrick RangersExpected goals in this matchNewington Youth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.77

Carrick Rangers

2.27

Newington Youth

1.77

Carrick Rangers creates 28% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.14

creates per match

1.40

2.14

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Carrick Rangers

2.14

Newington Youth

1.40

allows per match

Carrick Rangers

2.14

Newington Youth

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Newington Youth →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw

69%

Carrick Rangers or Newington Youth

80%

Draw or Newington Youth

51%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

29%

Newington Youth wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

90%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

66%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

39%

Newington Youth 1+ goals

83%

Newington Youth 2+ goals

53%

Newington Youth 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

62%

Newington Youth (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 2.14 + Newington Youth defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.27

Newington Youth attack 1.40 + Carrick Rangers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more

49%

level

20%

Newington Youth scores more

31%

Carrick Rangers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff