Carrick Rangers 2–1 Glenavon FC: Result & Stats

Carrick Rangers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Glenavon FC

L. McCullough 35'

P. Heatley 15'

P. Campbell 76'

2/10/2026

League #408 · Round 28Loughview Leisure Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Carrick Rangers36%

×Draw24%

Glenavon FC40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carrick RangersExpected goals in this matchGlenavon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.61

Carrick Rangers

1.50

Glenavon FC

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 58 away

1.00

creates per match

1.10

2.13

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Carrick Rangers

1.00

Glenavon FC

1.10

allows per match

Carrick Rangers

2.13

Glenavon FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Glenavon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Glenavon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw

60%

Carrick Rangers or Glenavon FC

76%

Draw or Glenavon FC

64%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

17%

Glenavon FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

78%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

44%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

19%

Glenavon FC 1+ goals

80%

Glenavon FC 2+ goals

48%

Glenavon FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

47%

Glenavon FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.13 · 23 matches

Glenavon FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 1.00 + Glenavon FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Glenavon FC attack 1.10 + Carrick Rangers defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more

36%

level

24%

Glenavon FC scores more

40%

Glenavon FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Glenavon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

35'

57'

76'

87'

L. Donnelly← S. Pengelly

Carrick

Glenavon

1

2

3

4

6

10

⚽

18

23

29

31

32

13

▼

2

4

9

10

12

⚽

14

15

19

22

⚽

Heatley

24

Snoddy

Manager: Stephen Baxter

87'▲L. Donnelly←▼S. Pengelly

Carrick Rangers substitutes

33Donnelly20Cherry23Glendinning29McCawl34Olosunde35Jeffers40Moore

Manager: Paddy McLaughlin

Glenavon FC substitutes

5Cartwright17Lowe24Harkin27Carlin28Falls30Lindsay36McGerrigan

League #408: Carrick Rangers 2–1 Glenavon FC

Carrick Rangers beat Glenavon FC 2-1 in League #408 on February 10, 2026.

Goals: P. Heatley (15'), L. McCullough (35'), P. Campbell (76').

The match was played at Loughview Leisure Arena in Carrickfergus.

Carrick Rangers vs Glenavon FC — League #408 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #408: Carrick Rangers 2–1 Glenavon FC