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Carrick Rangers vs Dundee — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
CANC
14:00
Dundee
Dundee
8/3/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Loughview Leisure Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Carrick Rangers29%
×Draw22%
Dundee49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrick Rangers
1.41
Dundee
1.91

Dundee creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Carrick Rangers
2.14
Dundee
1.67

allows per match

Carrick Rangers
2.14
Dundee
0.67

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par
Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Dundee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw
51%
Carrick Rangers or Dundee
78%
Draw or Dundee
71%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
13%
Dundee wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
76%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
41%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
17%
Dundee 1+ goals
85%
Dundee 2+ goals
57%
Dundee 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
37%
Dundee (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Dundee away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 2.14 + Dundee defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dundee attack 1.67 + Carrick Rangers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more
29%
level
22%
Dundee scores more
49%

Dundee at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carrick Rangers face Dundee (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Carrick Rangers hosting Dundee. Match starts August 3, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Carrick Rangers host Dundee at Loughview Leisure Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.