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Carrick Rangers vs Ards — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Ards
Ards
N. Maciulaitis 88'
Unknown 43', 24'
S. Jallow 29'
7/22/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Loughview Leisure Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Carrick Rangers34%
×Draw20%
Ards45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrick Rangers
1.97
Ards
2.27

Ards creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Carrick Rangers
2.14
Ards
2.40

allows per match

Carrick Rangers
2.14
Ards
1.80

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par
Ards+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Ards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw
55%
Carrick Rangers or Ards
80%
Draw or Ards
66%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
18%
Ards wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
86%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
58%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
31%
Ards 1+ goals
90%
Ards 2+ goals
66%
Ards 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
43%
Ards (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Ards away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 2.14 + Ards defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.97

Ards attack 2.40 + Carrick Rangers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more
34%
level
20%
Ards scores more
45%

Ards at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
29'
S. Jallow
43'
88'
N. Maciulaitis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Carrick Rangers 1–3 Ards

Ards beat Carrick Rangers 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 22, 2023.

Goals: ? (24', 43'), S. Jallow (29'), N. Maciulaitis (88').

The match was played at Loughview Leisure Arena in Carrickfergus.