Carrarese 3–1 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats

Carrarese

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Entella

F. Abiuso 72'

F. Ruggeri 70'

N. Schiavi 56'

A. Debenedetti 75'

12/14/2025

Serie B · Round 16Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Carrarese57%

×Draw26%

Virtus Entella17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarrareseExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.70

Carrarese

1.53

Virtus Entella

0.70

Carrarese creates 119% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.32

creates per match

0.47

0.92

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Carrarese

1.32

Virtus Entella

0.47

allows per match

Carrarese

0.92

Virtus Entella

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw

83%

Carrarese or Virtus Entella

74%

Draw or Virtus Entella

43%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+

30%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals

78%

Carrarese 2+ goals

45%

Carrarese 3+ goals

20%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

50%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

16%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)

77%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Virtus Entella defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.53

Virtus Entella attack 0.47 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Carrarese scores more

57%

level

26%

Virtus Entella scores more

17%

Carrarese at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Abiuso

Carrarese · F

8.5

Match Events

15'

E. Zuelli← L. Hasa

46'

F. Di Stefano← T. Rubino

53'

Ivan Marconi

55'

Simone ZanonPenalty cancelled

56'

N. Schiavi

57'

Stefano Di Mario

59'

Denis Portanova

63'

B. Guiu← N. Karic

63'

A. Debenedetti← F. Russo

70'

F. Ruggeri↳ F. Abiuso

72'

F. Abiuso↳ E. Zuelli

74'

M. Nichetti← T. Fumagalli

74'

A. Tiritiello← I. Marconi

74'

A. Franzoni← M. Dalla Vecchia

75'

A. Debenedetti↳ A. Franzoni

78'

Alessandro DebenedettiGoal confirmed

83'

F. Melegoni← F. Abiuso

83'

D. Bouah← S. Zanon

86'

Julián Illanes

90'

G. Parlanti← N. Schiavi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarrareseVirtus

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots10

2.55Expected Goals (xG)1.56

5Corners6

13Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target2

6Off Target6

4Blocked2

10Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

338Total Passes385

249Accurate Passes298

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2