Carrarese 2–0 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Carrarese

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sampdoria

M. Finotto 90' (pen)

L. Hasa 63'

3/18/2026

Serie B · Round 31Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Carrarese46%

×Draw26%

Sampdoria28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarrareseExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.08

Carrarese

1.47

Sampdoria

1.08

Carrarese creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.64

creates per match

0.94

1.23

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Carrarese

1.64

Sampdoria

0.94

allows per match

Carrarese

1.23

Sampdoria

1.30

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Carrarese-0.22scores less

Sampdoria-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw

72%

Carrarese or Sampdoria

74%

Draw or Sampdoria

54%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+

23%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals

77%

Carrarese 2+ goals

43%

Carrarese 3+ goals

18%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

66%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

29%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)

62%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.64 + Sampdoria defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sampdoria attack 0.94 + Carrarese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Carrarese scores more

46%

level

26%

Sampdoria scores more

28%

Carrarese at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

72

S. Zanon

Carrarese · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

Fabio AbiusoGoal cancelled

45+2'

Matteo Palma

57'

N. Pierini← T. Begic

57'

M. Coda← E. Soleri

62'

T. Rubino← E. Torregrossa

62'

J. Rouhi← N. Belloni

63'

L. Hasa↳ S. Zanon

65'

S. Pafundi← L. Cherubini

67'

67'

77'

77'

80'

M. Finotto← F. Abiuso

80'

F. Melegoni← L. Hasa

84'

Salvatore Esposito

84'

Salvatore Esposito

88'

D. Lordkipanidze← G. Parlanti

90+2'

Simone Pafundi

90'

M. FinottoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarrareseSampdoria

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots7

2.02Expected Goals (xG)0.55

4Corners2

16Fouls18

Shots

7Total Shots7

3On Target1

3Off Target6

1Blocked0

7Inside Box4

0Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

359Total Passes389

285Accurate Passes312

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.23Goals Prevented0.23

Discipline

16Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Carrarese vs Sampdoria

Carrarese beat Sampdoria 2-0 in Serie B on March 18, 2026.

Goals: L. Hasa (63'), M. Finotto (90' pen).

Sampdoria controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.

Carrarese vs Sampdoria — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Carrarese vs Sampdoria