Carrarese 3–2 Salernitana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Carrarese

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Salernitana

E. Zuelli 46'

M. Finotto 41'

S. Zanon 31'

R. Soriano 85'

J. Reine-Adélaïde 63'

2/15/2025

Serie B · Round 26Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Carrarese52%

×Draw29%

Salernitana20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarrareseExpected goals in this matchSalernitana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.71

Carrarese

1.33

Salernitana

0.71

Carrarese creates 87% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

1.32

creates per match

0.50

0.92

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Carrarese

1.32

Salernitana

0.50

allows per match

Carrarese

0.92

Salernitana

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par

Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Salernitana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw

80%

Carrarese or Salernitana

71%

Draw or Salernitana

48%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+

25%

Salernitana wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals

74%

Carrarese 2+ goals

38%

Carrarese 3+ goals

15%

Salernitana 1+ goals

51%

Salernitana 2+ goals

16%

Salernitana 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)

72%

Salernitana (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Salernitana defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Salernitana attack 0.50 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Carrarese scores more

52%

level

29%

Salernitana scores more

20%

Carrarese at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Cicconi

Carrarese · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

Lilian Njoh

31'

S. Zanon

37'

Petar Stojanović

41'

M. Finotto↳ N. Schiavi

46'

F. Zuccon← P. Stojanović

46'

D. Verde← F. Caligara

46'

E. Zuelli↳ M. Cicconi

55'

Leonardo Cerri

57'

G. Manzari← L. Cerri

57'

J. Reine-Adélaïde← F. Tongya

63'

J. Reine-Adélaïde↳ D. Bronn

70'

S. Nwankwo← A. Raimondo

73'

S. Giovane← E. Zuelli

74'

D. Bouah← S. Zanon

74'

E. Torregrossa← M. Finotto

85'

R. Soriano← L. Amatucci

85'

R. Soriano

88'

L. Capezzi← L. Cherubini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarrareseSalernitana

Overview

40%Possession60%

16Total Shots18

1Corners9

12Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots18

5On Target5

5Off Target5

6Blocked8

10Inside Box13

6Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

300Total Passes429

201Accurate Passes332

67%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2