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Carrarese vs Padova — Serie B 2021

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Padova
Padova
8/31/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 2Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Carrarese47%
×Draw27%
Padova26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.37
Padova
0.94

Carrarese creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.32
Padova
0.95

allows per match

Carrarese
0.92
Padova
1.42

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par
Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Padova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
74%
Carrarese or Padova
73%
Draw or Padova
53%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
22%
Padova wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
75%
Carrarese 2+ goals
40%
Carrarese 3+ goals
16%
Padova 1+ goals
61%
Padova 2+ goals
24%
Padova 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
64%
Padova (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Padova away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Padova defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Padova attack 0.95 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Carrarese scores more
47%
level
27%
Padova scores more
26%

Carrarese at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. CicconiCarrareseCarrarese · D
7.7

Match Events

15'
Antonio Barreca
39'
Pietro Fusi
45+1'
Fabio Ruggeri
46'
F. Melegoni← G. Parlanti
58'
D. Bouah← F. Ruggeri
58'
F. Accornero← F. Abiuso
60'
Pietro Fusi
60'
Pietro Fusi
65'
J. Harder← L. Di Maggio
67'
Filippo Melegoni
69'
Julián Illanes
69'
N. Sekulov← K. Bozhanaj
76'
K. Lasagna← M. Bortolussi
79'
N. Belloni← S. Zanon
85'
L. Crisetig← D. Baselli
85'
G. Favale← A. Barreca

Possession

58%Carrarese

Shots

16Carrarese

Pass accuracy

53%Carrarese

Statistics

CarraresePadova
Overview
58%Possession42%
16Total Shots10
4Corners2
17Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots10
2On Target0
6Off Target5
8Blocked5
5Inside Box7
11Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
466Total Passes342
400Accurate Passes264
86%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Serie B: Carrarese 0–0 Padova

Carrarese and Padova drew 0-0 in Serie B on August 31, 2025.

Carrarese controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.