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Carrarese vs Monza — Serie B 2021

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Monza
Monza
Hernani 49'
2/21/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 26Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese38%
×Draw28%
Monza34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.23
Monza
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 41 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.32
Monza
1.37

allows per match

Carrarese
0.92
Monza
1.15

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par
Monza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
66%
Carrarese or Monza
72%
Draw or Monza
62%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
16%
Monza wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
71%
Carrarese 2+ goals
35%
Carrarese 3+ goals
13%
Monza 1+ goals
68%
Monza 2+ goals
32%
Monza 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
53%
Monza (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Monza away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Monza defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Monza attack 1.37 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Carrarese scores more
38%
level
28%
Monza scores more
34%

Carrarese at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
D. ThiamMonzaMonza · G
7.9

Match Events

43'
Filippo Delli Carri
49'
Hernani
56'
N. Belloni← J. Rouhi
56'
T. Rubino← G. Parlanti
67'
A. Petagna← D. Mota
67'
L. Colombo← P. Obiang
68'
A. Bakoune← P. Ciurria
73'
E. Torregrossa← M. Finotto
79'
Adam BakouneGoal cancelled
81'
F. Di Stefano← N. Calabrese
81'
F. Melegoni← L. Hasa
85'
A. Brorsson← F. Delli Carri
90+5'
Niccolò Belloni

Possession

45%Carrarese

Shots

10Carrarese

Pass accuracy

48%Carrarese

Statistics

CarrareseMonza
Overview
45%Possession55%
10Total Shots9
0.58Expected Goals (xG)0.75
4Corners7
14Fouls17
Shots
10Total Shots9
4On Target2
6Off Target3
0Blocked4
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
343Total Passes429
261Accurate Passes349
76%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
0.89Goals Prevented0.89
Discipline
14Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Serie B: Carrarese 0–1 Monza

Monza beat Carrarese 1-0 in Serie B on February 21, 2026.

Goals: Hernani (49').

Monza controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.