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Carrarese vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2020

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
11/2/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 12Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese47%
×Draw27%
Juve Stabia26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.38
Juve Stabia
0.94

Carrarese creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 43 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.32
Juve Stabia
0.95

allows per match

Carrarese
0.92
Juve Stabia
1.44

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par
Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
74%
Carrarese or Juve Stabia
73%
Draw or Juve Stabia
53%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
23%
Juve Stabia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
75%
Carrarese 2+ goals
40%
Carrarese 3+ goals
16%
Juve Stabia 1+ goals
61%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
24%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
65%
Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Juve Stabia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Juve Stabia attack 0.95 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Carrarese scores more
47%
level
27%
Juve Stabia scores more
26%

Carrarese at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. BleveCarrareseCarrarese · G
7.9

Match Events

15'
Davide Buglio
38'
Leonardo Cerri
46'
M. Finotto← L. Cerri
46'
S. Shpendi← L. Cherubini
58'
M. Cicconi← S. Zanon
58'
N. Mosti← D. Buglio
58'
Y. Rocchetti← N. Fortini
69'
E. Zuelli← N. Schiavi
73'
L. Candellone← F. Maistro
73'
F. Zuccon← G. Leone
77'
G. Panico← S. Giovane
79'
Mauro Coppolaro
82'
F. Folino← M. Bellich
85'
Emanuele Zuelli

Possession

50%Carrarese

Shots

6Carrarese

Pass accuracy

49%Carrarese

Statistics

CarrareseJuve
Overview
50%Possession50%
6Total Shots10
4Corners2
14Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots10
0On Target4
5Off Target3
1Blocked3
3Inside Box8
3Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
398Total Passes391
301Accurate Passes309
76%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls14
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides6

Match Recap: Carrarese vs Juve Stabia

Carrarese and Juve Stabia drew 0-0 in Serie B on November 2, 2024.

Carrarese controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.