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Carrarese vs Cosenza — Serie B 2020

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cosenza
Cosenza
M. Cicconi 77'
12/21/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 18Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese51%
×Draw27%
Cosenza22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.45
Cosenza
0.85

Carrarese creates 71% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 97 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.32
Cosenza
0.79

allows per match

Carrarese
0.92
Cosenza
1.58

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par
Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
78%
Carrarese or Cosenza
73%
Draw or Cosenza
49%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
26%
Cosenza wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
77%
Carrarese 2+ goals
42%
Carrarese 3+ goals
18%
Cosenza 1+ goals
57%
Cosenza 2+ goals
21%
Cosenza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
70%
Cosenza (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Cosenza away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Cosenza defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cosenza attack 0.79 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Carrarese scores more
51%
level
27%
Cosenza scores more
22%

Carrarese at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. BleveCarrareseCarrarese · G
7.7

Match Events

23'
Julián Illanes
29'
Tommaso Fumagalli
30'
Aldo Florenzi
32'
Aldo Florenzi
32'
Aldo Florenzi
45+2'
Simone Zanon
46'
S. Mazzocchi← G. Ricci
46'
R. Ciervo← T. Fumagalli
65'
J. Mauri← M. Zilli
71'
N. Belloni← S. Zanon
77'
G. Panico← L. Cherubini
77'
M. Finotto← S. Shpendi
77'
M. Cicconi↳ E. Zuelli
78'
Manuel Cicconi
79'
L. Strizzolo← Charlys
84'
R. Palmieri← L. Cerri
85'
T. D'Orazio← A. Caporale

Possession

65%Carrarese

Shots

18Carrarese

Pass accuracy

55%Carrarese

Statistics

CarrareseCosenza
Overview
65%Possession35%
18Total Shots12
6Corners3
16Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots12
4On Target3
9Off Target4
5Blocked5
12Inside Box3
6Outside Box9
Passing
65%Possession35%
451Total Passes245
377Accurate Passes167
84%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls10
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Carrarese vs Cosenza

Carrarese beat Cosenza 1-0 in Serie B on December 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Cicconi (77').

Carrarese controlled possession (65%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.