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Carrarese vs Cittadella — Serie B 2018

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Cittadella
Cittadella
L. Cherubini 37'
L. Cerri 27', 13'
10/26/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 10Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese44%
×Draw29%
Cittadella27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.25
Cittadella
0.92

Carrarese creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 134 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.32
Cittadella
0.92

allows per match

Carrarese
0.92
Cittadella
1.19

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par
Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Cittadella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
73%
Carrarese or Cittadella
71%
Draw or Cittadella
56%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
20%
Cittadella wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
71%
Carrarese 2+ goals
36%
Carrarese 3+ goals
13%
Cittadella 1+ goals
60%
Cittadella 2+ goals
23%
Cittadella 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
62%
Cittadella (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carrarese scores more
44%
level
29%
Cittadella scores more
27%

Carrarese at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. CherubiniCarrareseCarrarese · F
8.7

Match Events

13'
L. Cerri↳ M. Cicconi
27'
L. Cerri↳ L. Cherubini
37'
L. Cherubini↳ M. Cicconi
46'
M. Ravasio← C. Cassano
60'
F. Falco← R. Palmieri
60'
M. Finotto← L. Cerri
61'
S. Zanon← D. Bouah
66'
A. Tessiore← J. Desogus
67'
L. Pandolfi← S. Rabbi
67'
A. Rizza← E. Masciangelo
70'
A. Cecchetto← M. Angeli
73'
S. Giovane← N. Schiavi
79'
Mario Ravasio
85'
G. Guarino← L. Cherubini

Possession

59%Carrarese

Shots

9Carrarese

Pass accuracy

52%Carrarese

Statistics

CarrareseCittadella
Overview
59%Possession41%
9Total Shots20
4Corners8
14Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots20
4On Target2
3Off Target11
2Blocked7
7Inside Box13
2Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
559Total Passes366
468Accurate Passes290
84%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Carrarese vs Cittadella

Carrarese beat Cittadella 3-0 in Serie B on October 26, 2024.

Goals: L. Cerri (13', 27'), L. Cherubini (37').

Carrarese controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.