Carrarese 2–0 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Carrarese

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cesena

S. Shpendi 77'

D. Bouah 46'

12/29/2024

Serie B · Round 20Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese47%

×Draw28%

Cesena26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarrareseExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.92

Carrarese

1.35

Cesena

0.92

Carrarese creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

1.32

creates per match

0.92

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Carrarese

1.32

Cesena

0.92

allows per match

Carrarese

0.92

Cesena

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw

74%

Carrarese or Cesena

72%

Draw or Cesena

53%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+

22%

Cesena wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals

74%

Carrarese 2+ goals

39%

Carrarese 3+ goals

15%

Cesena 1+ goals

60%

Cesena 2+ goals

23%

Cesena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)

65%

Cesena (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Cesena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Cesena defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cesena attack 0.92 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Carrarese scores more

47%

level

28%

Cesena scores more

26%

Carrarese at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Cherubini

Carrarese · F

8.0

Match Events

19'

22'

23'

27'

46'

E. Zuelli← N. Schiavi

46'

G. Panico← M. Finotto

46'

D. Bouah↳ S. Giovane

49'

Samuel Giovane

55'

E. Adamo← R. Celia

55'

A. Kargbo← S. Bastoni

57'

Matteo Francesconi

67'

M. Antonucci← S. van Hooijdonk

67'

T. Berti← M. Francesconi

70'

L. Capezzi← S. Giovane

75'

G. Calò← L. Mendicino

77'

S. Shpendi↳ L. Cherubini

78'

S. Zanon← M. Coppolaro

80'

Emanuele Zuelli

82'

Stiven Shpendi

86'

L. Cerri← S. Shpendi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarrareseCesena

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots12

6Corners6

14Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots12

6On Target2

6Off Target1

6Blocked9

11Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

448Total Passes398

386Accurate Passes319

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

6Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2