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Carrarese vs Catanzaro — Serie B 2020

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Catanzaro
Catanzaro
F. Rispoli 76' (OG)
F. Abiuso 64'
F. Melegoni 3'
F. Pittarello 90' (pen)
T. Cassandro 39'
J. Illanes 7' (OG)
3/4/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 28Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese42%
×Draw27%
Catanzaro31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.33
Catanzaro
1.09

Carrarese creates 22% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 61 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.32
Catanzaro
1.26

allows per match

Carrarese
0.92
Catanzaro
1.34

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par
Catanzaro+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Catanzaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
69%
Carrarese or Catanzaro
73%
Draw or Catanzaro
58%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
19%
Catanzaro wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
74%
Carrarese 2+ goals
38%
Carrarese 3+ goals
15%
Catanzaro 1+ goals
66%
Catanzaro 2+ goals
30%
Catanzaro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
58%
Catanzaro (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Catanzaro away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Catanzaro defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Catanzaro attack 1.26 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carrarese scores more
42%
level
27%
Catanzaro scores more
31%

Carrarese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
F. MelegoniCarrareseCarrarese · M
8.9

Match Events

-5'
Fabio Abiuso
-5'
Fabio Abiuso
3'
F. Melegoni↳ E. Zuelli
7'
J. IllanesOwn goal
20'
Jacopo Petriccione
39'
T. Cassandro↳ P. Iemmello
46'
N. Belloni← J. Rouhi
46'
R. Frosinini← M. D'Alessandro
46'
S. Pontisso← J. Petriccione
50'
Mattia Liberali
55'
M. Pompetti← M. Liberali
55'
F. Pittarello← P. Nuamah
64'
F. Abiuso↳ F. Melegoni
69'
F. Di Stefano← T. Rubino
76'
F. RispoliOwn goal
79'
G. Alesi← B. Verrengia
82'
G. Parlanti← F. Melegoni
83'
M. Finotto← F. Abiuso
90'
F. PittarelloPenalty

Possession

45%Carrarese

Shots

22Carrarese

Pass accuracy

49%Carrarese

Statistics

CarrareseCatanzaro
Overview
45%Possession55%
22Total Shots9
1.54Expected Goals (xG)1.96
4Corners2
10Fouls21
Shots
22Total Shots9
9On Target3
6Off Target3
7Blocked3
13Inside Box8
9Outside Box1
Passing
45%Possession55%
425Total Passes523
353Accurate Passes459
83%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
-0.95Goals Prevented-0.95
Discipline
10Fouls21
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Serie B: Carrarese 3–3 Catanzaro

Carrarese and Catanzaro drew 3-3 in Serie B on March 4, 2026.

Goals: F. Melegoni (3'), J. Illanes (7' o.g.), T. Cassandro (39'), F. Abiuso (64'), F. Rispoli (76' o.g.), F. Pittarello (90' pen).

Catanzaro controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 22.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.