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Carpi vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Carpi
Carpi
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
2/23/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 25Stadio Sandro Cabassi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Carpi32%
×Draw26%
Spezia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carpi
1.21
Spezia
1.40

Spezia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 98 away

creates per match

Carpi
1.06
Spezia
1.12

allows per match

Carpi
1.67
Spezia
1.36

finishing

Carpi+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carpi ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carpi or draw
59%
Carpi or Spezia
74%
Draw or Spezia
68%

Winning margin

Carpi wins by 2+
14%
Spezia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Carpi 1+ goals
70%
Carpi 2+ goals
34%
Carpi 3+ goals
12%
Spezia 1+ goals
75%
Spezia 2+ goals
41%
Spezia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Carpi (draw refunded)
44%
Spezia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carpi at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carpi attack 1.06 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Spezia attack 1.12 + Carpi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carpi scores more
32%
level
26%
Spezia scores more
41%

Spezia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carpi 3 – 2 Spezia

Carpi beat Spezia 3-2 in Serie B on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Sandro Cabassi in Carpi.