Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carnoustie Panmure vs Rothes — FA Cup 2019

Carnoustie Panmure
Carnoustie Panmure
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Rothes
Rothes
9/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundLaing Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Carnoustie Panmure56%
×Draw20%
Rothes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carnoustie Panmure
2.25
Rothes
1.44

Carnoustie Panmure creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Carnoustie Panmure
1.50
Rothes
1.38

allows per match

Carnoustie Panmure
1.50
Rothes
3.00

finishing

Carnoustie Panmure+0.00on par
Rothes+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carnoustie Panmure ↓

Rothes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Carnoustie Panmure or draw
76%
Carnoustie Panmure or Rothes
80%
Draw or Rothes
44%

Winning margin

Carnoustie Panmure wins by 2+
34%
Rothes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Carnoustie Panmure 1+ goals
89%
Carnoustie Panmure 2+ goals
65%
Carnoustie Panmure 3+ goals
39%
Rothes 1+ goals
76%
Rothes 2+ goals
42%
Rothes 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Carnoustie Panmure (draw refunded)
70%
Rothes (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carnoustie Panmure at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Rothes away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carnoustie Panmure attack 1.50 + Rothes defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Rothes attack 1.38 + Carnoustie Panmure defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Carnoustie Panmure scores more
56%
level
20%
Rothes scores more
24%

Carnoustie Panmure at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Carnoustie Panmure will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carnoustie Panmure vs Rothes

Carnoustie Panmure beat Rothes 3-1 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Laing Park in Carnoustie.