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Carmona vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Carmona
Carmona
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
2/26/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Carmona36%
×Draw35%
Santa Rita29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmona
0.86
Santa Rita
0.75

Carmona creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 68 away

creates per match

Carmona
0.40
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Carmona
1.00
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Carmona+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmona ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Carmona or draw
71%
Carmona or Santa Rita
65%
Draw or Santa Rita
64%

Winning margin

Carmona wins by 2+
12%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carmona 1+ goals
58%
Carmona 2+ goals
21%
Carmona 3+ goals
6%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
53%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
17%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Carmona (draw refunded)
55%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmona at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmona attack 0.40 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.86

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Carmona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Carmona scores more
36%
level
35%
Santa Rita scores more
29%

Carmona at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Carmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Carmona 0–0 Santa Rita

Carmona and Santa Rita drew 0-0 in Girabola on February 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.