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Carmona vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

Carmona
Carmona
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
10/5/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Carmona33%
×Draw34%
Recreativo do Libolo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmona
0.87
Recreativo do Libolo
0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

creates per match

Carmona
0.40
Recreativo do Libolo
0.72

allows per match

Carmona
1.00
Recreativo do Libolo
1.34

finishing

Carmona+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmona ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Carmona or draw
67%
Carmona or Recreativo do Libolo
66%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
67%

Winning margin

Carmona wins by 2+
11%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Carmona 1+ goals
58%
Carmona 2+ goals
22%
Carmona 3+ goals
6%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
58%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
21%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Carmona (draw refunded)
50%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmona at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmona attack 0.40 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.87

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.72 + Carmona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Carmona scores more
33%
level
34%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
33%

Carmona at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Carmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carmona vs Recreativo do Libolo

Carmona and Recreativo do Libolo drew 0-0 in Girabola on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.