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Carmona vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Carmona
Carmona
FT
0 – 2
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
12/11/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Carmona13%
×Draw27%
Petro de Luanda60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmona
0.49
Petro de Luanda
1.41

Petro de Luanda creates 188% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 104 away

creates per match

Carmona
0.40
Petro de Luanda
1.81

allows per match

Carmona
1.00
Petro de Luanda
0.59

finishing

Carmona+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmona ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–121%
0–215%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Carmona or draw
40%
Carmona or Petro de Luanda
73%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
87%

Winning margin

Carmona wins by 2+
3%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Carmona 1+ goals
39%
Carmona 2+ goals
9%
Carmona 3+ goals
1%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
76%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
41%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Carmona (draw refunded)
18%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmona at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.59 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmona attack 0.40 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.49

Petro de Luanda attack 1.81 + Carmona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Carmona scores more
13%
level
27%
Petro de Luanda scores more
60%

Petro de Luanda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Carmona 0–2 Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat Carmona 2-0 in Girabola on December 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.