Carmona 1–1 CD Lunda-Sul: Result & Stats | Girabola

Carmona

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CD Lunda-Sul

10/20/2024

Girabola · Round 6Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Carmona28%

×Draw34%

CD Lunda-Sul37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarmonaExpected goals in this matchCD Lunda-Sul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

0.92

Carmona

0.76

CD Lunda-Sul

0.92

CD Lunda-Sul creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

0.40

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Carmona

0.40

CD Lunda-Sul

0.83

allows per match

Carmona

1.00

CD Lunda-Sul

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carmona+0.00on par

CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmona ↓

CD Lunda-Sul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–117%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Carmona or draw

63%

Carmona or CD Lunda-Sul

66%

Draw or CD Lunda-Sul

72%

Winning margin

Carmona wins by 2+

9%

CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Carmona 1+ goals

53%

Carmona 2+ goals

18%

Carmona 3+ goals

4%

CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals

60%

CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals

23%

CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Carmona (draw refunded)

43%

CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmona at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

CD Lunda-Sul away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmona attack 0.40 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.76

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.83 + Carmona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carmona scores more

28%

level

34%

CD Lunda-Sul scores more

37%

CD Lunda-Sul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CD Lunda-Sul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff