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Carmen București W vs Vasas Femina W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Carmen București W
Carmen București W
FT
5 – 0
Vasas Femina W
Vasas Femina W
5/27/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 10Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Carmen București W65%
×Draw16%
Vasas Femina W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmen București W
3.10
Vasas Femina W
1.65

Carmen București W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 58 away

creates per match

Carmen București W
2.95
Vasas Femina W
1.34

allows per match

Carmen București W
1.95
Vasas Femina W
3.24

finishing

Carmen București W+0.00on par
Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmen București W ↓

Vasas Femina W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Carmen București W or draw
81%
Carmen București W or Vasas Femina W
84%
Draw or Vasas Femina W
35%

Winning margin

Carmen București W wins by 2+
46%
Vasas Femina W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carmen București W 1+ goals
95%
Carmen București W 2+ goals
81%
Carmen București W 3+ goals
58%
Vasas Femina W 1+ goals
81%
Vasas Femina W 2+ goals
49%
Vasas Femina W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Carmen București W (draw refunded)
78%
Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmen București W at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

Vasas Femina W away — creates 1.34, concedes 3.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmen București W attack 2.95 + Vasas Femina W defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 3.10

Vasas Femina W attack 1.34 + Carmen București W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Carmen București W scores more
65%
level
16%
Vasas Femina W scores more
19%

Carmen București W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Carmen București W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Carmen București W 5–0 Vasas Femina W

Carmen București W beat Vasas Femina W 5-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.