Carmen București W 10–0 Universitatea Galaţi W

Carmen București W

FT

10 – 0

Universitatea Galaţi W

9/11/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 2Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Carmen București W80%

×Draw11%

Universitatea Galaţi W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carmen București WExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Galaţi W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.88

1.34

Carmen București W

3.88

Universitatea Galaţi W

1.34

Carmen București W creates 190% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

2.95

creates per match

0.74

1.95

allows per match

4.81

creates per match

Carmen București W

2.95

Universitatea Galaţi W

0.74

allows per match

Carmen București W

1.95

Universitatea Galaţi W

4.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carmen București W+0.00on par

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmen București W ↓

Universitatea Galaţi W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Carmen București W or draw

91%

Carmen București W or Universitatea Galaţi W

89%

Draw or Universitatea Galaţi W

20%

Winning margin

Carmen București W wins by 2+

63%

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Carmen București W 1+ goals

98%

Carmen București W 2+ goals

89%

Carmen București W 3+ goals

72%

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals

74%

Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals

39%

Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Carmen București W (draw refunded)

90%

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmen București W at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

Universitatea Galaţi W away — creates 0.74, concedes 4.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmen București W attack 2.95 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 4.81 → ÷2 → 3.88

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 0.74 + Carmen București W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Carmen București W scores more

80%

level

11%

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more

9%

Carmen București W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Carmen București W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff