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Carmen București W vs Selena Constanţa W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Carmen București W
Carmen București W
FT
4 – 0
Selena Constanţa W
Selena Constanţa W
11/11/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 9Stadionul Progresul Spartac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Carmen București W79%
×Draw12%
Selena Constanţa W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmen București W
3.73
Selena Constanţa W
1.32

Carmen București W creates 183% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Carmen București W
2.95
Selena Constanţa W
0.70

allows per match

Carmen București W
1.95
Selena Constanţa W
4.50

finishing

Carmen București W+0.00on par
Selena Constanţa W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmen București W ↓

Selena Constanţa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Carmen București W or draw
90%
Carmen București W or Selena Constanţa W
88%
Draw or Selena Constanţa W
21%

Winning margin

Carmen București W wins by 2+
62%
Selena Constanţa W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Carmen București W 1+ goals
97%
Carmen București W 2+ goals
88%
Carmen București W 3+ goals
69%
Selena Constanţa W 1+ goals
73%
Selena Constanţa W 2+ goals
38%
Selena Constanţa W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Carmen București W (draw refunded)
89%
Selena Constanţa W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmen București W at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

Selena Constanţa W away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmen București W attack 2.95 + Selena Constanţa W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.73

Selena Constanţa W attack 0.70 + Carmen București W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Carmen București W scores more
79%
level
12%
Selena Constanţa W scores more
10%

Carmen București W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Carmen București W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carmen București W vs Selena Constanţa W

Carmen București W beat Selena Constanţa W 4-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Progresul Spartac in București.