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Carmen București W vs Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Carmen București W
Carmen București W
FT
0 – 6
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
11/18/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 11Baza Sportivă Ion Ţiriac Teren 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Carmen București W37%
×Draw20%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmen București W
2.18
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
2.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Carmen București W
2.95
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
2.82

allows per match

Carmen București W
1.95
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
1.41

finishing

Carmen București W+0.00on par
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmen București W ↓

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Carmen București W or draw
56%
Carmen București W or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
80%
Draw or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
63%

Winning margin

Carmen București W wins by 2+
20%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Carmen București W 1+ goals
89%
Carmen București W 2+ goals
64%
Carmen București W 3+ goals
37%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals
91%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals
68%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Carmen București W (draw refunded)
46%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmen București W at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmen București W attack 2.95 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.18

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 2.82 + Carmen București W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carmen București W scores more
37%
level
20%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more
44%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carmen București W vs Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W beat Carmen București W 6-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Ion Ţiriac Teren 1 in Bucureşti.