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Carmen București W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Carmen București W
Carmen București W
FT
0 – 3
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
10/7/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 5Baza Sportivă Ion Ţiriac Teren 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Carmen București W39%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmen București W
2.02
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Carmen București W
2.95
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.18

allows per match

Carmen București W
1.95
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
1.09

finishing

Carmen București W+0.00on par
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmen București W ↓

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Carmen București W or draw
60%
Carmen București W or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
79%
Draw or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
61%

Winning margin

Carmen București W wins by 2+
21%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Carmen București W 1+ goals
87%
Carmen București W 2+ goals
60%
Carmen București W 3+ goals
33%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
87%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
61%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Carmen București W (draw refunded)
49%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmen București W at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmen București W attack 2.95 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.02

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 2.18 + Carmen București W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carmen București W scores more
39%
level
21%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
40%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carmen București W 0 – 3 Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W beat Carmen București W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Ion Ţiriac Teren 1 in Bucureşti.