Carmen București W 1–2 FF Baia Mare W

Carmen București W

FT

1 – 2

FF Baia Mare W

5/5/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 5Stadionul Progresul Spartac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Carmen București W69%

×Draw15%

FF Baia Mare W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carmen București WExpected goals in this matchFF Baia Mare W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.27

1.60

Carmen București W

3.27

FF Baia Mare W

1.60

Carmen București W creates 104% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

2.95

creates per match

1.26

1.95

allows per match

3.58

creates per match

Carmen București W

2.95

FF Baia Mare W

1.26

allows per match

Carmen București W

1.95

FF Baia Mare W

3.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carmen București W+0.00on par

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmen București W ↓

FF Baia Mare W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Carmen București W or draw

84%

Carmen București W or FF Baia Mare W

85%

Draw or FF Baia Mare W

31%

Winning margin

Carmen București W wins by 2+

50%

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Carmen București W 1+ goals

96%

Carmen București W 2+ goals

83%

Carmen București W 3+ goals

62%

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals

80%

FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals

47%

FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Carmen București W (draw refunded)

81%

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmen București W at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

FF Baia Mare W away — creates 1.26, concedes 3.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmen București W attack 2.95 + FF Baia Mare W defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 3.27

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.26 + Carmen București W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Carmen București W scores more

69%

level

15%

FF Baia Mare W scores more

16%

Carmen București W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Carmen București W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff