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Carmen București W vs Fairplay Bucureşti W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Carmen București W
Carmen București W
FT
0 – 3
Fairplay Bucureşti W
Fairplay Bucureşti W
5/9/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 6Stadionul Progresul Spartac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Carmen București W68%
×Draw15%
Fairplay Bucureşti W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmen București W
3.42
Fairplay Bucureşti W
1.73

Carmen București W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

creates per match

Carmen București W
2.95
Fairplay Bucureşti W
1.50

allows per match

Carmen București W
1.95
Fairplay Bucureşti W
3.88

finishing

Carmen București W+0.00on par
Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmen București W ↓

Fairplay Bucureşti W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Carmen București W or draw
83%
Carmen București W or Fairplay Bucureşti W
85%
Draw or Fairplay Bucureşti W
32%

Winning margin

Carmen București W wins by 2+
49%
Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carmen București W 1+ goals
97%
Carmen București W 2+ goals
85%
Carmen București W 3+ goals
64%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals
82%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals
52%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Carmen București W (draw refunded)
80%
Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmen București W at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmen București W attack 2.95 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.42

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 1.50 + Carmen București W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Carmen București W scores more
68%
level
15%
Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more
17%

Carmen București W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Carmen București W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Carmen București W 0–3 Fairplay Bucureşti W

Fairplay Bucureşti W beat Carmen București W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Progresul Spartac in București.