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Carmarthen Town vs Treowen Stars — League #111 2026

Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Treowen Stars
Treowen Stars
9/12/2025League #111League #111

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Carmarthen Town49%
×Draw22%
Treowen Stars29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmarthen Town
1.98
Treowen Stars
1.48

Carmarthen Town creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Carmarthen Town
1.70
Treowen Stars
1.75

allows per match

Carmarthen Town
1.20
Treowen Stars
2.25

finishing

Carmarthen Town+0.00on par
Treowen Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmarthen Town ↓

Treowen Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Carmarthen Town or draw
71%
Carmarthen Town or Treowen Stars
78%
Draw or Treowen Stars
51%

Winning margin

Carmarthen Town wins by 2+
28%
Treowen Stars wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Carmarthen Town 1+ goals
86%
Carmarthen Town 2+ goals
59%
Carmarthen Town 3+ goals
31%
Treowen Stars 1+ goals
77%
Treowen Stars 2+ goals
43%
Treowen Stars 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Carmarthen Town (draw refunded)
63%
Treowen Stars (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmarthen Town at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Treowen Stars away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmarthen Town attack 1.70 + Treowen Stars defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Treowen Stars attack 1.75 + Carmarthen Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carmarthen Town scores more
49%
level
22%
Treowen Stars scores more
29%

Carmarthen Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Carmarthen Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #111: Carmarthen Town 1–1 Treowen Stars

Carmarthen Town and Treowen Stars drew 1-1 in League #111 on September 12, 2025.