Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carlos Stein vs Union Comercio — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
8/13/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 3Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Carlos Stein24%
×Draw23%
Union Comercio53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.12
Union Comercio
1.79

Union Comercio creates 60% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 45 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
Union Comercio
1.33

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
Union Comercio
1.11

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
47%
Carlos Stein or Union Comercio
77%
Draw or Union Comercio
76%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
9%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
67%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
31%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
10%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
83%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
53%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
31%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Union Comercio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Union Comercio attack 1.33 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
24%
level
23%
Union Comercio scores more
53%

Union Comercio at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos Stein vs Union Comercio

Carlos Stein and Union Comercio drew 0-0 in Segunda División on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.