Carlos Stein 0–2 U. San Martin: Result & Stats

Carlos Stein

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

U. San Martin

11/4/2020

Primera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein43%

×Draw25%

U. San Martin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos SteinExpected goals in this matchU. San Martin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.29

Carlos Stein

1.54

U. San Martin

1.29

Carlos Stein creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 85 away

1.21

creates per match

0.91

1.68

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Carlos Stein

1.21

U. San Martin

0.91

allows per match

Carlos Stein

1.68

U. San Martin

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

U. San Martin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw

68%

Carlos Stein or U. San Martin

75%

Draw or U. San Martin

57%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

21%

U. San Martin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

79%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

45%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

20%

U. San Martin 1+ goals

72%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

37%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

57%

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.87 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + U. San Martin defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.54

U. San Martin attack 0.91 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carlos Stein scores more

43%

level

25%

U. San Martin scores more

32%

Carlos Stein at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff