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Carlos Stein vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
7/27/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Víctor Montoya Segura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein42%
×Draw25%
Sport Boys32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.49
Sport Boys
1.27

Carlos Stein creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 145 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.21
Sport Boys
0.86

allows per match

Carlos Stein
1.68
Sport Boys
1.77

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
68%
Carlos Stein or Sport Boys
75%
Draw or Sport Boys
58%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
21%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
77%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
44%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
19%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
72%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
36%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
57%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.77 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Sport Boys defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sport Boys attack 0.86 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
42%
level
25%
Sport Boys scores more
32%

Carlos Stein at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Carlos Stein 3–2 Sport Boys

Carlos Stein beat Sport Boys 3-2 in Primera División on July 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Montoya Segura in Jaén.