Carlos Stein 3–2 Comerciantes Unidos

Carlos Stein

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Comerciantes Unidos

9/15/2021

Segunda División · Clausura - 9Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Carlos Stein32%

×Draw24%

Comerciantes Unidos45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos SteinExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.71

Carlos Stein

1.41

Comerciantes Unidos

1.71

Comerciantes Unidos creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 53 away

1.12

creates per match

1.17

2.24

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Carlos Stein

1.12

Comerciantes Unidos

1.17

allows per match

Carlos Stein

2.24

Comerciantes Unidos

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw

55%

Carlos Stein or Comerciantes Unidos

76%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

68%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

14%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

76%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

41%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

17%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

82%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

51%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

42%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.17 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Carlos Stein scores more

32%

level

24%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

45%

Comerciantes Unidos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff