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Carlos Stein vs Alianza Atletico — Primera División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
3/6/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio César Flores Marigorda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein40%
×Draw26%
Alianza Atletico34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.41
Alianza Atletico
1.28

Carlos Stein creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 93 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.21
Alianza Atletico
0.89

allows per match

Carlos Stein
1.68
Alianza Atletico
1.61

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Alianza Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
66%
Carlos Stein or Alianza Atletico
74%
Draw or Alianza Atletico
60%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
19%
Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
76%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
41%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
17%
Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
72%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
37%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
54%
Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Alianza Atletico attack 0.89 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
40%
level
26%
Alianza Atletico scores more
34%

Carlos Stein at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Carlos Stein 0–1 Alianza Atletico

Alianza Atletico beat Carlos Stein 1-0 in Primera División on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio César Flores Marigorda in Lambayeque.