Carlos Stein 3–0 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Carlos Stein

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

9/5/2023

Segunda División · Round 23Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Carlos Stein39%

×Draw23%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos SteinExpected goals in this matchAlfonso Ugarte Puno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.60

Carlos Stein

1.64

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

1.12

creates per match

0.96

2.24

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Carlos Stein

1.12

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

0.96

allows per match

Carlos Stein

2.24

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw

63%

Carlos Stein or Alfonso Ugarte Puno

77%

Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno

61%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

20%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

81%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

49%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

23%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals

80%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals

47%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

51%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.64

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlos Stein scores more

39%

level

23%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more

37%

Carlos Stein at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff