Carlos Renaux 0–0 Criciuma: Result & Stats

Carlos Renaux

FT

0 – 0

Criciuma

7/13/2022

Catarinense - 2 · Round 6Estádio Augusto Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Carlos Renaux33%

×Draw33%

Criciuma34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos RenauxExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

0.91

Carlos Renaux

0.88

Criciuma

0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

1.05

creates per match

1.43

0.38

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Carlos Renaux

1.05

Criciuma

1.43

allows per match

Carlos Renaux

0.38

Criciuma

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos Renaux+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Renaux ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Carlos Renaux or draw

66%

Carlos Renaux or Criciuma

67%

Draw or Criciuma

67%

Winning margin

Carlos Renaux wins by 2+

11%

Criciuma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carlos Renaux 1+ goals

59%

Carlos Renaux 2+ goals

22%

Carlos Renaux 3+ goals

6%

Criciuma 1+ goals

60%

Criciuma 2+ goals

23%

Criciuma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)

49%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Renaux at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.38 · 21 matches

Criciuma away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Renaux attack 1.05 + Criciuma defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Criciuma attack 1.43 + Carlos Renaux defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Carlos Renaux scores more

33%

level

33%

Criciuma scores more

34%

Criciuma at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff